Permafrost Threatened by Retreat of Arctic Sea Ice

by The Environmentalist Staff

Published on Reuters, Huffington Post, IBS, USAToday

A new study by the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the National Center for Atmospheric Research has warned that the integrity of carbon and methane sequestering permafrost is threatened by the rapid retreat of Arctic Sea Ice. This comes at the same time as warnings that this summer may see the first ice-free North Pole for the first time in recorded history.

The rate of climate warming over northern Alaska, Canada, and Russia could more than triple during extended episodes of rapid sea ice loss, according to a new study from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The findings raise concerns about the thawing of permafrost, or permanently frozen soil, and the potential consequences for sensitive ecosystems, human infrastructure, and the release of additional greenhouse gases.

“The rapid loss of sea ice can trigger widespread changes that would be felt across the region,” said Andrew Slater, NSIDC research scientist and a co-author on the study, which was led by David Lawrence of NCAR. The findings will be published Friday in Geophysical Research Letters.

Last summer, Arctic sea ice extent shrank to a record low. From August to October last year, air temperatures over land in the western Arctic were also unusually warm, reaching more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above the 1978-2006 average. This led the researchers to question whether the unusually low sea ice extent and warm land temperatures were related.

The report's findings show a link between rapid sea ice loss and an increased rate of global warming, potentially moving up to 900 miles inland and in areas where permafrost is already at risk, i.e. central Alaska, where periods of abrupt sea ice loss could lead to uncontrolled soil thaw.

Thawing permafrost may have a range of impacts, including buckled highways and destabilized houses, as well as changes to the delicate balance of life in the Arctic...

NOAA makes it official: Extreme weather due to climate change

by Janet Ritz

Published on Reuters, The Huffington Post, IBS, Fox News, USA Today


In a report issued by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, a joint effort of more than a dozen government agencies -- including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration -- the conclusion is that the extreme weather we've been experiencing will become more extreme and is due to climate change.

WASHINGTON - Droughts will get drier, storms will get stormier and floods will get deeper with a warming climate across North America, U.S. government experts said in a report billed as the first continental assessment of extreme events.

Events that have seemed relatively rare will become commonplace, said the latest report from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, a joint effort of more than a dozen government agencies.

Specific future projections include:

* Abnormally hot days and nights, along with heat waves, are very likely to become more common.
* Cold nights are very likely to become less common.
* Sea ice extent is expected to continue to decrease and may even disappear in the Arctic Ocean in summer in coming decades.
* Precipitation, on average, is likely to be less frequent but more intense.
* Droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in some regions.
* Hurricanes will likely have increased precipitation and wind.
* The strongest cold-season storms in the Atlantic and Pacific are likely to produce stronger winds and higher extreme wave heights.

The report, issued by the Department of Commerce in accordance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2001 was produced to be in compliance with that act in conjunction with NOAA.

For purposes of compliance with Section 515, this CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product is an “interpreted product” as that term is used in NOAA guidelines and is classified as “highly influential.”

Which means the report cannot require regulatory action, though it can (and should) influence it. From the NOAA press release:

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research today released a scientific assessment that provides the first comprehensive analysis of observed and projected changes in weather and climate extremes in North America and U.S. territories. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change previously evaluated extreme weather and climate events on a global basis in this same context. However, there has not been a specific assessment across North America prior to this report.

Among the major findings reported in this assessment are that droughts, heavy downpours, excessive heat, and intense hurricanes are likely to become more commonplace as humans continue to increase the atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

That's official. The extreme weather the U.S. has been experiencing is due to climate change and is expected to become more extreme in the future.

[1] [2]

U.S. Floods a Sign of Things to Come

by Environmentalist Staff

Reprint of article originally published on 3/21/08 forecasting current floods

Cross-posted on Reuters, USA Today, FoxNews, IBS, Atlanta Journal-Constitution

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a report that states the flooding we're seeing in the U.S. heartland is a sign of things to come.

Major floods striking America’s heartland this week offer a preview of the spring seasonal outlook, according to NOAA’s National Weather Service. Several factors will contribute to above-average flood conditions, including record rainfall in some states and snow packs, which are melting and causing rivers and streams to crest over their banks. This week, more than 250 communities in a dozen states are experiencing flood conditions.

“We expect rains and melting snow to bring more flooding this spring,” said Vickie Nadolski, deputy director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Americans should be on high alert to flood conditions in your communities. Arm yourselves with information about how to stay safe during a flood and do not attempt to drive on flooded roadways – remember to always turn around, don’t drown.”

The heavy precipitation may be related to the La Nina effect, as reported by the British Met(eorological) Office in this report. NOAA gives these reasons for the flood conditions:

1. Above-normal flood potential is evident in much of the Mississippi River basin, the Ohio River basin, the lower Missouri River basin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, most of New York, all of New England, and portions of the West, including Colorado and Idaho.


2. Heavy winter snow combined with recent rain indicates parts of Wisconsin and Illinois should see minor to moderate flooding, with as much as a 20 to 30 percent chance of major flooding on some rivers in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.


3. Current snow depth in some areas of upstate New York and New England is more than a foot greater than usual for this time of the year, which increases flood potential in the Connecticut River Valley.


4. Locations in the mountains of Colorado and Idaho have 150 to 200 percent of average water contained in snowpack leading to a higher than normal flood potential.

NOAA has also updated their Spring Drought Outlook with the following...

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Carnegie Study: Climate Requires Near-zero Emissions

by Janet Ritz
and The Environmentalist Staff

Scientists at the Carnegie Institution have just completed a study that has concluded the only way to stabilize the climate is to reduce carbon emissions to a near-zero level:

In the study, to be published in Geophysical Research Letters, climate scientists Ken Caldeira and Damon Matthews used an Earth system model at the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology to simulate the response of the Earth’s climate to different levels of carbon dioxide emission over the next 500 years. ~snip~

The scientists investigated how much climate changes as a result of each individual emission of carbon dioxide, and found that each increment of emission leads to another increment of warming.

With emissions set to zero in the simulations, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere slowly fell as carbon “sinks” such as the oceans and land vegetation absorbed the gas. Surprisingly, however, the model predicted that global temperatures would remain high for at least 500 years after carbon dioxide emissions ceased.

In our earlier article, Everything but the Oceans' Sink, we explored the connection between global warming and the inability of the Southern Ocean to absorb C02. Caldeira and Matthews' study further points to the connection between carbon sinks and the impact on climate stability.

Matthews and Caldeira found that to prevent the Earth from heating further, carbon dioxide emissions would, effectively, need to be eliminated...

THERE'S MORE

Congress grills Big Oil on prices

by Janet Ritz

and The Environmentalist Staff

Cross-posted on Reuters, IBS, USAToday, FoxNews


The top five oil companies, testifying before Representative Edward Markey's (D-MA) Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, insisted that their 125 billion dollar profit last was "in line with other industries."

Representative Markey's take on the profits:

“On April Fool’s Day, the biggest joke of all is being played on American families by Big Oil, while using every trick in the book to keep billions in federal tax subsidies even as they rake in record profits,” said Rep. Edward Markey, D-Mass. [video]

As reported in this article, Congress to drill for answers on oil prices, both the House and the Senate are holding hearings this week regarding the record profits by oil companies. The House hearings are focusing on the actual profits by the big five oil companies; Exxon Mobile, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, BP and Royal Dutch Shell.

The Senate investigation will be on the impact of investors on rising prices.

Lawmakers were looking for answers to the soaring fuel costs a day after the Energy Department said the national average price of gasoline reached a record $3.29 cents a gallon and global oil prices remained above $100 a barrel although supplies of both gasoline and oil seemed to be adequate.
~snip~

In November, 2005, Hofmeister and the top executives of the same companies represented Tuesday, sat in a Senate hearing room to explain high prices and their h&uge profits. The prices are of concern, Hofmeister said at the time, adding a note of optimism: "Our industry is extremely cyclical and what goes up almost always comes down," he told the skeptical senators on a day when oil cost $60 a barrel.

Oil recently reached a high of $111 a barrel.

The increase in the price of gasoline is hitting all sectors of the American economy. Truckers, dependent upon high diesel prices, have been particularly hard hit, leading to an increase in the inflation index for the products they carry. This ranges from milk to hardware to the price increase announced by Delta Airlines today due to high fuel costs...

THERE'S MORE

Giant Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapses

by Janet Ritz
and the Environmentalist Staff

The National Ice and Snow Institute (NISDC) has released a report documenting a dramatic and troubling collapse of a large portion (nine times the size of Manhattan) of the Wilkins Ice Shelf in Antarctica.

Satellite imagery from the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder reveals that a 13,680 square kilometer (5,282 square mile) ice shelf has begun to collapse because of rapid climate change in a fast-warming region of Antarctica.

The Wilkins Ice Shelf it's a broad plate of permanent floating ice on the southwest Antarctic Peninsula, about 1,000 miles south of South America. In the past 50 years, the western Antarctic Peninsula has experienced the biggest temperature increase on Earth, rising by 0.5 degree Celsius (0.9 degree Fahrenheit) per decade. NSIDC Lead Scientist Ted Scambos, who first spotted the disintegration in March, said, "We believe the Wilkins has been in place for at least a few hundred years. But warm air and exposure to ocean waves are causing a break-up."

The ice shelf began its visible collapse on February 28th, when a huge iceberg (41 x 2.5 kilometers - 25.5 by 1.5 miles) broke away, triggering a wider collapse of 405 square kilometers (160 square miles) of the shelf.



The edge of the shelf crumbled into the sky-blue pattern of exposed deep glacial ice that has become characteristic of climate-induced ice shelf break-ups such as the Larsen B in 2002. A narrow beam of intact ice, just 6 kilometers wide (3.7 miles) was protecting the remaining shelf from further breakup as of March 23.

"The Wilkins disintegration won't raise sea level because it already floats in the ocean, and few glaciers flow into it." Scambos said. "However, the collapse underscores that the Wilkins region has experienced an intense melt season. Regional sea ice has all but vanished, leaving the ice shelf exposed to the action of waves."

Scientists have tracked this event with great interest, both for the indications of warming, the loss of habitat and the concern that other ice shelves, similarly impacted, do have the potential to significantly raise sea level. NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and data from ICESat alerted scientists to the ice shelf's collapse in mid-March...

Photo Credit (1): National Snow and Ice Data Center; Photo Credit(2): National Snow and Ice Data Center/NASA

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Tipping Points Could Be Closer Than We Thought

by Stormchaser John

Cross-posted on Reuters, USA Today

An international team of experts has submitted a report that lists nine tipping elements -- areas of concern for lawmakers -- that quantify how much time is left to address their impending impact.

Produced by scientists from the U.K, Germany and the U.S., the study states: "Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change," and goes on to predict the critical threshold at which a small change in human activity can have large, long-term consequences for the Earth’s climate system.

"These tipping elements are candidates for surprising society by exhibiting a nearby tipping point," the report states. "Many of these tipping points could be closer than we thought..."

Read more

'The Warm Air is Very Active This Year'

by Janet Ritz

Cross-posted on USAToday

"The warm air is very active this year." So says Li Weijing, deputy director-general of China's National Climate Center, in reference to the massive snowstorm that has paralyzed his country.

The cause for the Chinese storms has been ascribed to the La Niña weather pattern, as forecast by the British Met (Meteorological) Office. La Niña is a cooling pattern that is influenced and enhanced by warming trends:

La Nina enhances Arctic weather systems and causes a cold winter in Asia, including in China. As warm and moisture air from the south meets cold air in the north under freezing temperatures, snow forms.

Read more