The New Climate Dice

by Dr. James Hansen

Several people have asked for a referenceable version of our paper "Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice", so we have placed the current version on arXiv, the permanent storage for physics preprints. This is the version of the paper submitted to Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. with favorable reviews by Tom Karl and Andrew Weaver, so presumably it is the final version. In any case, arXiv is a permanent storage place of this version. You can find it at arXiv with referencing information or get a PDF from my web site or directly here.

Part A of the first figure in the paper (available as a PDF from my web site) makes clear why extreme anomalies are beginning to pop up all over the place. Summer anomalies over land are the most important, as discussed in the paper. Averaged over a decade the frequency distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies is shifting rapidly toward more extreme hot anomalies, and the distribution is becoming broader (greater extremes). Because the planet is out of energy balance, we can conclude that next decade the distribution will be shifted even further to the right.

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